A Super El Nino Is Coming: Is Your Property Ready?

Series: Storm Season / El Nino Prep (Part 1)

Most winters, “storm prep” is a routine line item. This winter is different, and the forecast isn’t coming from a headline writer looking for a dramatic angle. It’s coming directly from NOAA’s own Climate Prediction Center.

What NOAA Is Actually Saying

On September 10, 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an updated El Nino Advisory. The numbers are worth sitting with:

Greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Nino during fall and winter 2026-27
75% chance that the October-December 2026 season will exceed the strength of every El Nino on record dating back to 1950, based on the three-month Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI)
Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific have already exceeded +3.0\u00b0C, well above the threshold that defines El Nino conditions in the first place

That combination, a greater-than-90% chance of “very strong,” with a real shot at “strongest on record,” is why some meteorologists are calling this a potential Super El Nino. NOAA updates this forecast on the second Thursday of every month, and each revision since June has moved in the same direction: stronger, not weaker.

What This Typically Means for California

NOAA is careful to note that El Nino shifts probabilities, it doesn’t guarantee a specific outcome in any one location. But the pattern isn’t a mystery. Strong El Nino winters have a well-documented history in California, and it isn’t a gentle one. The 1997-98 and 2015-16 events, both strong El Nino winters, brought significant Bay Area rainfall, flooding, and landslide activity. A very strong or record-strength event raises the odds of a repeat, or worse.

For Bay Area properties specifically, that means an elevated chance of above-normal rainfall, concentrated heavily in the January through March window, exactly when soil is already saturated from earlier storms and has the least capacity left to absorb more.

Why This Matters for Your Property, Not Just the Forecast

A strong rain year doesn’t create new problems. It finds every existing one and makes it expensive.

Drainage systems that were “fine” in a normal year get overwhelmed fast when storms come back to back instead of spaced out
Erosion on slopes and hillsides accelerates dramatically once soil is already saturated
Trees with existing weak limbs or root issues face far more wind and saturated-soil stress than in a typical winter
Standing water and runoff issues that were a minor nuisance in a dry year become liability and safety issues in a wet one

None of this is hypothetical. It’s the direct, predictable result of more water hitting the same infrastructure, more often, in a shorter window.

What This Series Will Cover

This is the first piece in a short series on getting Bay Area properties ready before the rain does the finding-problems part for you. Over the next several weeks, we’ll cover:

Drainage basics: how to spot problems before the first real storm hits
Erosion control for slopes and hillsides specifically
Tree risk assessment: what to look for before wind and saturated soil turn a weak limb into a liability
Drainage upgrades: French drains, catch basins, and retention basins, what each one actually solves
A final pre-storm checklist, timed for right before the wettest window arrives
What to do after a storm, if damage does happen despite the prep

The Time to Start Is Now, Not in January

NOAA’s forecast puts the wettest signal squarely in January through March 2027. That sounds like time to spare. It isn’t. Drainage work, tree assessments, and erosion control all take real lead time, and every property in the Bay Area will be trying to book the same services at the same time once the first serious storm makes the news.

Acting in the fall, while the ground is still dry and schedules are still open, is the difference between a proactive fix and an emergency call during a storm.

Ready to Get Ahead of This Winter?

We’ll walk your property, check your drainage, and flag what needs attention before the rain arrives, not after.

[Schedule a Storm-Readiness Property Assessment \u2192]

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Resources for Going Deeper

Save Our Water: California’s statewide water conservation program, including outdoor watering guidance
QWEL (Qualified Water Efficient Landscaper): EPA WaterSense-recognized certification covering irrigation auditing and system design
NALP (National Association of Landscape Professionals): industry certification and continuing education for landscape and irrigation professionals
CLCA (California Landscape Contractors Association): California-specific water management certification and continuing education

Why Rubicon

For more than 30 years, Rubicon Landscape has provided dependable, professional landscape services throughout the Bay Area, helping property owners and managers maintain landscapes that are healthy, attractive, and reliably well-functioning.

Our approach is built on quality workmanship, responsive service, and proactive problem-solving, the kind of long-term partnership that protects your landscape investment and delivers consistent results, year after year.

As a division of Rubicon Programs, that work also creates real community impact. Every project supports employment opportunities and workforce development that strengthen the communities we serve.

Professional landscape services. Reliable results. Meaningful community impact.